Shorter days, cooler nights, and the changing colors means that fall is here. And as fall arrives, it means that the ski season isn’t far away. Some ski areas have even seen their first snow of the season, making skiers and riders all that more excited for the 2024/25 winter ski season. So it’s that time again for my long-range winter forecast for North America.
As past winters have proven, long-range winter forecasts aren’t exactly a precise indication of how much snow a region will, or will not, receive. However, as climate patterns materialize, they can provide some clues about what a ski season may hold. As fall gets underway, climate patterns often start to emerge that will have impacts on the ski season. The NOAA has issued a La Niña Watch, anticipating it to start developing in the fall and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. You can learn more about La Niña in this article.
Without further ado, let’s get into my complete long-range winter weather forecast for the 2024-25 season.
2024/2025 Long-Range Winter Forecast By Meteorologist Chris Tomer
Keep in mind that this is a forecast, and a long-range forecast at that. What’s forecasted in the fall for the upcoming winter often varies, and can vary significantly. During the 2022-23 ski season, for example, we saw a rare triple-dip La Nina, in which parts of North America, particularly in California and Utah, saw far more snow than was originally forecasted. A number of Utah and California ski areas broke their all-time season snowfall records. We then said so long to La Niña and hello to El Niño for the 2023-24 ski season. La Niña is now predicted to return for the 2024/25 ski season. However, I think it’ll be a light La Nina.
I believe we’re looking at an abnormally warm and dry fall for most of the U.S. and Canada. The exception to that is the West Coast, and more specifically the Pacific Northwest. In the South Pacific, near the equator, where water temperatures are measured in relation to La Niña and El Niño, I expect anomalies of -0.5 to -1.0 Celsius. So that would put the North America winter in what’s considered a weaker La Niña, or what I like to call a La Niña Lite.
What we often see with La Niña, and the orientation of the jet stream, is that it lends itself naturally to northwest flow setups. This can bring significant snowfall out West, often in regions like the Tetons and Western Colorado. It can also bring significant snowfall to Utah’s Wasatch Range. It’s not always the case, but in a La Niña winter, the polar jet is the dominant player that will often drag in colder air. This, plus the wind direction, play a major factor in snowfall.
Tomer’s Take
Overall, while this will change day-to-day and week-to-week, my long-range winter forecast for North America favors the northern states out West. I believe we’ll see the most snow, and most consistent snow, in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, Western Montana, Western Wyoming, Idaho, and Northern California. My storm track also favors some of Utah, but only the very northern part in the Wasatch Range. I believe it’ll be a sharp cutoff south of that. In Colorado, it favors Northwest Colorado, including Steamboat and Vail, and maybe Aspen.
Which Ski Resorts Could Receive The Most Snow?
La Niña historically favors the Pacific Northwest, Canada, and northern tier states. I’m forecasting above normal snowfall in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Northern California, Northern Utah, and Northwest Colorado. This includes Whistler Blackcomb, Revelstoke, Kicking Horse, Schweitzer, Brundage, Whitefish, Discovery, Bridger Bowl, Big Sky, Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, Sun Valley, Alta, Snowbird, Snowbasin, Park City, Deer Valley, Solitude, Brighton, Powder Mountain, Mt. Shasta, and Steamboat.
This could change, but I don’t see this winter’s storm track benefitting the Midwest and the East Coast like it will the West Coast.
As the ski season gets closer, I’ll be back with twice-weekly forecasts that’ll be published every Monday and Thursday morning.
October 05, 2024
